A tropical low has done a wiggly dance that has had forecasters befuddled for the past few days around Australia’s top end, finally culminating in Tropical Cyclone Grant on Christmas day and crossing land as a category 2 to the north east of Darwin later that evening. It was a confusing track that saw the forecast models in all sorts of disagreement and confusion. Still a category 1 system as of now (mid-day EST, Dec 26), TC Grant is still a category 1 storm that is forecast to move to the east, potentially crossing back into warm water where conditions are good for intensification on the morning of Dec 28th.
One of the main steering influences of this system has been, and will continue to be a forming trough in Western and Central Australia. About where this radar line is pointed:
The beams have been coming thick and strong all day. Prior to the above shot, the Dampier / Pt Hedland region was displaying partial circle anomalies:
But Katherine it seems, is the one to watch for the moment: